what is carbon neutrality?
To prevent further increases in carbon dioxide concentration, ensure that "net emissions" are zero.
Carbon neutrality is also known as Net-Zero. Carbon neutrality is achieved when carbon dioxide emissions from human activity are blalanced with global carbon dioxide absorption. To this end, we need to reduce greenhouse gases we emit as much as possible, and increase the amount of greenhouse gases. The remaining greenhouse gases shall be increased in absorption due to forest restoration, etc. or eliminated by utilizing technology so that the actual emissions may be zero.
Why is it 2050?
In order to curb the global average temperature rise below 1.5℃ compared to the before industrial revolution (1840-1900 average), the world must be carbon neutrality by 2050.
The " Special Report on Global Warming 1.5℃" approved by the IPCC in October 2018 suggests that carbon dioxide emissions should be reduced by at least 45% by 2030 to curb the global average temperature rise within 1.5℃, and carbon neutrality with global net emissions of "0" by 2050.
※In order to control within 2℃, carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced by 25% by 2030 compared to 2010 and carbon neutrality achieved by 2070.
※(Special Report on 1.5℃ Global Wariming) 91 scientists from 40 countries wrote the report unanimously approved by member countries (195 countries) at the 48th IPCC Genneral Assembly in Songdo, Incheon, 2018
Why is it necessary to suppress 1.5℃ (International discussion process and scientific evidence)
International discussion of targets to curb 2℃ rise.
The international community has long time discussed the goal of curbing the rise of 2℃. Since the adoption of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil in 1992, discussions have been raised about how much the global average temperature rise should be contained compared to before industrialization. It was included in the Copenhagen agreement in 2009 after a consensus on 2℃ suppression Mokpo was formed from the mid-1990s, and was officially adopted by the Cancun agreement in 2010.
Reference : Global average temperature rise and global climate system.
The impact of climate varies from region to region, so there is no objective limit. However, many post-high analysis and global system modeling studies suggest that the global average rise of 2℃ is the maginot line of the global climate system acceptance and adaptation limits.
The global climate system has changed at various timescales due to various causes, and the components of the system interact and adapt to or buffer the effects. However, if the average global temperature rises above 2℃ over a period of hundreds of years, the speed and intensity of climate change is likely to grow out of control.
International discussion and scientific evidence to curb rise of 1.5℃
In December 2015, the Paris Agreement set a goal of keeping the global average surface temperature rise well below 2℃ compared to the before industrial revolution(1850-1900 average) and further reducing it below 1.5℃. Between 1.5℃ and 2℃ is called the climate defense line.
The average global temperature has already increased by more than 1℃ compared to before industrialization. Global warming, which has progressed more than 1℃, has led to more frequent and higher intensity of abnormal weather such as heat waves, heavy snow, and forest fires, and many island countries in the Pacific are facing the risk of survival due to rising sea levels. If it reach 1.5℃, several islands in the South Pacific, including Kiribati, Tuvalu, and Fiji, are expected to be submerged, wit altitudes of only two to three meters.' also, ecosystems and human societies will be at very high risk in many ways. This is why suppressing 1.5degree rise in the Paris climate agreement has been added as a goal.
Reference : Status and Prospect of the Average Temperature Increase in the Earth
The IPCC announced in its "Special Report on 1.5℃ Global Warming" that it is estimated to have risen by about 1℃ in 2017 compared to 1850-1900, which is certain to be due to human activities.
In addition, artificaial wariming caused by human activity is likely to rise to 0.2℃ per decade and reach 1.5℃ between 2030 and 2052 if warming continues at its current rate.
Korea's average temperature has risen 1.8℃, higher than the average global temperature(1℃) over the past 100 years, and the trend of global warming has become more serious in recent years, especially 1.4℃ in the past 30 years.
A special report on IPCC Global Warming 1.5℃ suggests that the risk of climate change can be greatly reduced when the rise below 1.5℃ is suppressed compared to the 2℃ rise. If 2℃ rises, ecosystems and human societies can be at very high risk that cannot be undone, but if 1.5℃ rises are suppressed, the risk can be greatly reduced. If you look at the table below, you can compare the risk of 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming.
Comparison of major impacts of 1.5℃ and 2℃ of global
Sortaion | Middle latitude heat wave temperature | High latitude limit temperature | Coral extinction | Climate change and poverty vulnerable populations. | Water shortage population | Sea level rise | Arctic sea ice complete extinction frequency |
1.5℃ | 3℃ rise | 4.5℃ rise | 70 ~ 90% | Hundreds of millions more by 2050 at 2℃ | Increase up to 50% at 2℃ | 0.26 ~ 0.77m | Once every 100 years (restorable) |
2℃ | 4℃ rise | 6℃ rise | over 99% | 0.3 ~ 0.93m | Once every 10 years (hard to restore) |
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